Computational Epidemiology Lab

Research

Our research spans dementia epidemiology, biomarker and surrogate endpoint evaluation, and quantitative approaches to assessing and strengthening the credibility of biomedical science.

Surrogate Evaluation

We develop and apply rigorous statistical frameworks for evaluating biomarkers—such as amyloid clearance—as surrogate endpoints for cognitive outcomes in Alzheimer's disease clinical trials. Our work examines whether treatment effects on intermediate biomarkers reliably predict effects on the clinical outcomes that matter to patients, and what standards of evidence should govern approval of new drug treatments.

Evaluation of amyloid change as a surrogate for cognitive decline: demonstration in individual-level data from the A4 study of solanezumab

Ackley SF, Flanders MD, Murchland A, Chen R, Wang J, Shah SJ, Huey ED, Glymour MM

Alzheimer's & Dementia: Translational Research & Clinical Interventions·2026
Surrogate EvaluationDementia EpidemiologyDrugs and Devices

Substituting blood-based biomarkers for imaging measures in Alzheimer's disease studies: implications for sample size and bias

Ackley SF, La Joie R, Caunca M, Mukherjee S, Choi SE, Trittschuh EH, Crane PK, Hayes-Larso…

Journal of Gerontology: Medical Sciences (accepted)·2026
Surrogate EvaluationDementia EpidemiologyMathematical Modeling
Evaluating the presence of a physiologic ceiling in amyloid trajectories: insights from the Sampled Iterative Local Approximation (SILA) algorithm and simulations

Ackley SF, Gantenberg JR, Heston MB, La Joie R

Alzheimer's & Dementia (AAIC abstract)·2025
Surrogate EvaluationMathematical Modeling

Exploring Centiloid robustness: impact of sample size and image resolution on Centiloid conversion accuracy

Zhang J, Soleimani-Meigooni DN, Koeppe R, Ackley S, Schonhaut DR, Lin ZE, Maiti P, Yballa…

Journal of Nuclear Medicine·2025
Surrogate Evaluation
Contribution of global amyloid-PET imaging for predicting future cognition in the MEMENTO cohort

Ackley SF, Calmasini C, Bouteloup V, Hill-Jarrett TG, Swinnerton KN, Chêne G, Dufouil C, G…

Neurology·2024
Surrogate EvaluationDementia EpidemiologyMachine Learning and AI
Estimated effects of amyloid reduction on cognitive change: a Bayesian update across a range of priors

Ackley SF, Wang J, Chen R, Power MC, Allen IE, Glymour MM

Alzheimer's & Dementia·2024
Surrogate EvaluationEvidence TriangulationDementia Epidemiology
Considerations for use of blood-based biomarkers in epidemiologic dementia research

Hayes-Larson E, Ackley SF, Turney IC, La Joie R, Mayeda ER, Glymour MM, Alzheimer's Diseas…

American Journal of Epidemiology·2024
Surrogate EvaluationDementia Epidemiology

Associations of amyloid burden, white matter hyperintensities, and hippocampal volume with cognitive trajectories in the 90+ Study

Wang J, Ackley SF, Woodworth DC, Sajjadi SA, Decarli CS, Fletcher EF, Glymour MM, Jiang L,…

Neurology·2024
Dementia EpidemiologySurrogate Evaluation

Key questions for the evaluation of anti-amyloid immunotherapies for Alzheimer's disease

Liu KY, Villain N, Ayton S, Ackley SF, Planche V, Howard R, Thambisetty M

Brain Communications·2023
Surrogate EvaluationDrugs and Devices
Effect of reductions in amyloid levels on cognitive change in randomized trials: instrumental variable meta-analysis

Ackley SF, Zimmerman SC, Brenowitz WD, Tchetgen Tchetgen EJ, Gold AL, Manly JJ, Mayeda ER,…

BMJ·2021
Surrogate EvaluationEvidence TriangulationDrugs and Devices
Instrumental variable meta-analysis of aggregated randomized drug trial data for evaluating proposed target mechanisms

Ackley SF, Elahi F, Glymour MM

BMJ·2021
Evidence TriangulationSurrogate Evaluation
Amyloid-PET imaging offers small improvements in predictions of future cognitive trajectories

Ackley SF, Hayes-Larson E, Brenowitz WD, Swinnerton K, Mungas D, Fletcher E, Singh B, Whit…

NeuroImage: Clinical·2021
Surrogate EvaluationDementia EpidemiologyMachine Learning and AI